You might ask: what is a just transition? It is a way of cutting emissions that protects workers and communities relying on high-carbon industries, with decent jobs, support and a real say in decisions.
This guide is part of our wider sustainability coverage, and it looks at how the idea works in policy and in practice.
| Item | Value |
|---|---|
| Sectors with losses above 10,000 jobs | 14 of 163 sectors analysed |
| ILO projected net new jobs from greener policies | 24 million by 2030 |
| Job losses those new jobs would offset | 6 million |
| Germany’s support for coal regions | 40 billion euros, to 2038 |
| Share for the coal states | 14 billion euros |
| Federal government’s share for further measures | 26 billion euros |
Figures come from the International Labour Organization’s 2018 news release and from Clean Energy Wire’s report on Germany’s coal deal. Projections and programmes change, so check the source before you rely on them.
What a just transition means
The core idea is simple: moving away from fossil fuels is necessary, but the cost should not fall mostly on the people who powered the old economy. A coal miner, a refinery technician or a town whose budget depends on one power station did nothing wrong by doing that work.
A just transition therefore adds a second question to climate policy. Besides “how fast do emissions fall?”, it asks “who gains, who loses, and who decides?”
The wording has reached the climate talks. In 2015 the ILO noted that “a just transition of the workforce and creation of decent work and quality jobs in accordance with nationally defined development priorities” had been recognised as an important consideration for climate action and integrated into the draft climate agreement before the Paris talks, according to the ILO’s November 2015 news release.
Where the idea comes from: the ILO guidelines
The most cited practical framework is the ILO’s set of guidelines. The ILO’s executive body adopted them on 5 November 2015, after a tripartite meeting of experts, meaning governments, workers and employers, had drafted them from 5 to 9 October 2015, as the ILO’s release records.
The guidelines include social dialogue. The ILO’s publication page says they include mechanisms for social dialogue among governments, workers and employers’ organizations throughout policy making.
That point matters in practice. A plan written for a community and a plan written with it often look very different.
What the numbers say about jobs
Studies of the overall job picture are fairly reassuring, and also incomplete. The ILO’s 2018 report, World Employment and Social Outlook 2018: Greening with Jobs, said that action to limit global warming to 2 degrees Celsius would create enough jobs to more than offset job losses of 6 million elsewhere, and that 24 million new jobs could be created globally by 2030 if the right policies were put in place, according to the ILO’s release.
The same release found that of 163 economic sectors analysed, only 14 would suffer employment losses of more than 10,000 jobs worldwide. Losses are concentrated, not spread evenly.
This is the heart of the justice problem. A net gain nationally does not help an older mine worker if the new jobs are in another region, need different skills, or pay less.
Two real examples: Germany and Spain
Germany linked its coal exit to regional support. Federal and state governments signed a deal to make official the 40 billion euros in support that are part of the plan to exit coal-fired power generation by 2038 at the latest, as Clean Energy Wire reported. The coal states receive 14 billion euros for direct investments, and the federal government provides another 26 billion euros for “further measures” to strengthen local economies.
Spain took a labour-centred route. A deal worth 250 million euros, reached between the Spanish government and mining unions and reported in November 2018, provides for the closure of coal mines that are no longer economically viable. About 60 per cent of miners, those age 48 and older or with 25 years’ service, can take early retirement, according to the global union federation IndustriALL.
The two cases show different tools:
- Germany: money aimed at regional investment and new economic activity.
- Spain: a negotiated worker package with early retirement for older miners.
The Spanish figure also shows a gap. If about 60 per cent qualify for early retirement, younger workers and those outside the eligibility rules need other support, such as retraining.
What makes a transition fair in practice
Across the ILO’s framework and these national examples, a handful of ingredients recur:
- A voice for those affected, through unions, local councils and community groups from the start.
- Income protection for workers near retirement, such as early pensions.
- Retraining and new local jobs, so younger workers can stay in their region.
- Regional investment, so towns lose an employer without losing their future.
- Decent job quality in the new industries, not only job numbers.
The idea is not limited to energy. Questions of who bears the cost of change arise in manufacturing sectors too, as in our look at fast fashion environmental impact, where cutting waste and emissions affects the people who make the clothes.
Waste reduction can also open new work. The ILO’s 2018 release estimated that 6 million jobs can be created by moving towards a circular economy, and our explainer on what is the circular economy shows how recycling, repair and remanufacture fit together.
Frequently asked questions
What is a just transition in one sentence?
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It is a shift to a low-carbon economy that treats workers and communities fairly, through decent jobs, social protection and a say in planning.
Is a just transition legally binding?
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The ILO guidelines are a practical tool for national implementation, not a law in themselves. Legal force comes from national measures, such as the law adopted by Germany’s parliament to phase out coal power by no later than 2038.
Will clean energy create more jobs than it removes?
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The ILO’s 2018 analysis projected that new jobs would more than offset the 6 million lost. That is a projection under a set of policies, and it does not guarantee that any particular worker or town benefits.
Who pays for a just transition?
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It varies. In Germany, the coal states receive 14 billion euros and the federal government provides another 26 billion euros in regional support, while Spain’s deal was reached between the government and mining unions.
